João de Sousa

Terça-feira, Janeiro 31, 2023

Mudança climática e stress de água: Instabilidade, conflitos e segurança nacional

Três relatórios do Center for Naval Analyses

Muito interessantes e elucidativos sobre os riscos e ameaças de uma problemática já em desenvolvimento e que irá marcar os próximos tempos.


National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (2007)

In 2006 CNA convened a Military Advisory Board (MAB) of eleven retired three-star and four-star admirals and generals to assess the impact of global climate change on key matters of national security, and to lay the groundwork for mounting responses to the threats found.

In April 2007, CNA released the MAB’s landmark report, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, that articulates the concept of climate change acting as a “threat multiplier” for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world and identifies key challenges that must be planned for now if they are to be met effectively in the future.

National Security and the Threat of Climate Change



National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change (2014)

As a follow-up to its landmark 2007 study on climate and national security, the CNA Military Advisory Board’s National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change re-examines the impact of climate change on U.S. national security in the context of a more informed, but more complex and integrated world.

The Board’s 2007 report described projected climate change as a “threat multiplier.” In this report the 16 retired Generals and Admirals who make up the board look at new vulnerabilities and tensions posed by climate change, which, when set against the backdrop of increasingly decentralized power structures around the world, they now identify as a “catalyst for conflict.”

In the seven years since the first Military Advisory Board (MAB) report, developments in scientific climate projections, observed climate changes (particularly in the Arctic), the toll of extreme weather events both at home and abroad, and changes in the global security environment have all served to accelerate the national security implications of climate change.  While there has been some movement in efforts to plan effective responses to these challenges, the lack of comprehensive action by both the United States and the international community to address the full spectrum of projected climate change issues remains a concern.

The specific questions addressed in this update are:

  1. Have new threats or opportunities associated with projected climate change or its effects emerged since our last report? What will be the impacts on our military?
  2. The 2014 National Climate Assessment indicates that climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present. What additional responses should the national security community take to reduce the risks posed to our nation and to the elements of our National Power (Political, Military, Social, Infrastructure, and Information systems (PMESII))?

National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change



The Role of Water Stress in Instability and Conflict

Watch the U.S. report launch event on Feb. 6, 2018 at the Wilson Center

As senior military officers, we see water stress—the lack of adequate fresh water—as a growing factor in the world’s hot spots and conflict areas, many of vital interest to the United States. Our earlier reports have identified a nexus among climate, water, energy, and U.S. national security.

We have previously shown how emerging resource scarcity across this nexus can be a threat multiplier and an accelerant of instability. With escalating global population and the impact of a changing climate, we see the challenges of water stress rising with time. It is in this context that we now seek to provide a better understanding of the mechanisms through which water factors into violence and conflict.

This report examines the role of water across a spectrum from civil unrest and localized violence to terrorism, insurgencies, and civil wars to state-on-state conflict. Focusing on water-stressed areas of the world, it articulates the role water plays not only in diplomacy, violence, and conflict, but also how water can be used as a tool of coercion across the spectrum of conflict.

Additionally, the research provides insight into how water stress can empower violent extremist organizations and place stable governments at risk.

The Role of Water Stress in Instability and Conflict

Exclusivo Tornado / IntelNomics

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